SULAIMANI (ESTA) — Oil prices calmed down after fluctuating initially on Monday, as investors eyed contrasting scenarios of tighter Russian energy supplies due to the Ukraine crisis.
Brent crude futures were at $93.29 a barrel at 0721 GMT, down 25 cents, after earlier touching $95.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures had climbed 3 cents to $91.10 a barrel, off an earlier high of $92.93. U.S. markets will be closed on Monday for the Presidents Day holiday.
Oil markets have been jittery over the past month on worries a Russian invasion of its neighbour could disrupt crude supplies, but price gains have been limited by the possibility of more than 1 million barrels a day of Iranian crude returning to the market.
A senior European Union official said on Friday a deal to revive Iran’s 2015 nuclear agreement was “very very close”.
Analysts said the market remained tight, and any addition of oil would help, but prices would remain volatile in the near term as Iranian crude would only likely return later this year.
“There’s just so many pressures geopolitically it’s difficult to know what the answer is [on market movements] — with Ukraine and Iran,” Reuters quoted National Australia Bank commodity analyst Baden Moore as saying.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Russia would be cut off from international financial markets and denied access to major exports needed to modernize its economy if it invaded Ukraine.
“If a Russian invasion takes place as the U.S. and U.K. have warned in recent days, Brent futures could spike above $US100/bbl, even if an Iranian deal is reached,” Commonwealth Bank analyst Vivek Dhar said in a note, according to Reuters.
Analysts at Singapore’s OCBC bank said Brent could test $100 in the short term, possibly before the end of first quarter.
